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LOOSE CHANGE Wonder why I like Chinese food so much? It couldn't possibly have anything to do with China's imminent entry to WTO. The thought is enough to ruin my appetite. Tell you why. Something a garment industry whiz from Kurt Salmon Associates told me a while ago is going to come true: "When the Chinese come out, we might as well pack up and go home." He was talking about garment exports. I'm talking about the whole caboodle. Chop-chop. Isn't that a strange thing? Because all the excitement that usually accompanies a country signing up with WTO is about getting into a country. That's why developed nations are salivating, waiting to bite into some juicy spare rib. For India, the worry should be about China getting out and into India. It's going to ruin us: we aren't ready for it. In two years, we should be flooded with Chinese goods. In 1999, India exported US$ 825 million worth of goods to China, a decline of almost 9 per cent over the previous year. In the same period, China exported US$ 1.16 billion to India, a growth of over 14 per cent over the previous year. So far, there is absolutely no indication that the trend is going to be reversed while there is every indication trade will grow. 2-Speeds and two minds: I shared my concern with a reader of this column who has become a friend, V. Anantha-Nageswaran, Director & Regional Head, Investment Consulting, with Credit Suisse in Singapore. He was in Delhi on Friday to address a seminar on 'India, China and the WTO-What does the Future Hold?' at the Confederation of Indian Industry. Ananth believes that India stands a good chance of getting hammered because it hasn't worked out any strategies to take advantage of China opening up. On the other hand, India is totally vulnerable to China's exportable onslaught to what that country correctly perceives as a burgeoning consumer and industrial market for everything from toys to TV to transmission towers. His theory about a 2-speed Asia is engaging. Among other things, it eloquently argues the point about two Asias (slower moving sorts like the Philippines and Thailand) and quicker moving sorts like Singapore, Korea and Taiwan. The slower Asia isn't going to be able to take on China or the world effectively. Equally, a 2-speed China (a reality, with its zones of affluence and poverty) has to grapple with enormous problems of socio-economic and financial dislocation while at the same time throwing itself open for the world to come in with its WTO move. Tricky, but it is using the opportunity to plan for wholesale, prescient change. There's also this 2-speed business in India. But it's going nowhere as far as meshing the gears to achieve single speed. That's the lesson we still haven't learnt. Are these people on drugs? Unfortunately, it was eminently clear at the seminar. It's one thing for organisations like CII to bash about with such seminars (and a damned good thing, too, since it raises awareness). But if you were there to listen to the opening remarks as I was, your jaw would have dropped at the sheer pomposity of tone and ignorance that some Indian government and CII speakers displayed while introducing the subject. One, who manufacturers TV tubes talked, incredibly, about a "collaborative" effort between India and China at the WTO, a plank of the developing world against the developed world for a "fair, reasonable, economic order". Why? Because the developed world will, in the next round of negotiations, offer maximum concessions to least developed countries-which will be a disadvantage for countries like India and China. This gentleman is clearly on drugs. There can be no such thing as a "collaborative effort" at the WTO, only a temporary truce at best, depending on India and China's future investment and trade priorities. The only real collaboration possible is if Chinese companies export and do business here and Indian companies export and do business there. That's the bottom-line. The truth on the ground is that China is moving far more quickly than India on this account-except in a handful of areas such as pharmaceuticals. My bet is that India is going to get whacked pretty badly unless it learns the kung-fu of trade and business. China bulldozed India in 1962. That was a blood-and-bullets war over broken promises and broken ground. I told a Chinese diplomat some time ago that I strongly believe India and China will fight over a sphere of influence that is underscored by the money motive, not soldiers boys playing with guns. So far, it's a no-contest. Chop-chop.
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